A few weeks ago, the Michigan Wolverines were expected to lose by double-digits in East Lansing against the Michigan State Spartans.
Even though the Wolverines eventually did just that, they opened plenty of eyes in the process by hanging tough despite adversity, taking the Spartans to overtime and doling out several substantial punches of their own in the intrastate slugfest.
Now, Michigan gets their chance at home against the Spartans in an environment Michigan State hasn’t tasted victory in since 2010. What will tip the scales for the Wolverines this time around? How can the Spartans reverse their losing ways in Ann Arbor?
Wolverine Walkthrough talks the final regular season meeting on the hardwood between a pair of old rivals.
How Michigan Wins: More unexpected contributions.
The Wolverines pushed the Spartans to the limit in East Lansing, largely because of contributions from Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (18 points) and Spike Albrecht (18 points). With the heavy-hitters out, the Wolverines need similar performances from both those players on Tuesday, and likely also need to get a big game from someone like Max Bielfeldt (seven points) or Aubrey Dawkins (seven points). To match Michigan State’s balance, someone is going to have to step up and have a big game. The Spartans likely won’t be as taken by surprise by Rahkman this time around and will play Albrecht physical, meaning the responsibility will be on a player listed above to have a big shooting game, own up in the paint and lead a win.
How Michigan State Wins: A confident, controlled Denzel Valentine.
Saturday, Valentine hit one of the shots heard ’round the college basketball world, hammering home a rainbow three pointer just before the buzzer to help lead in Michigan State’s home upset of the Ohio State Buckeyes. All told, it was a much better effort from Valentine, who scored 17 points on 6-10 shooting, including 5-9 from three point land. Tom Izzo would likely want Valentine to pick some of his three pointers better, but when Valentine is confident and playing mistake free basketball, the Spartans can play with any team in the country. Problem is, he will follow good efforts up with mental clunkers. Somehow, Valentine has to be the leader the Spartans need him to be on the road, and play responsible, mistake free basketball.
The X-Factors: Ricky Doyle and Lourawls Narin
Doyle was a complete no-show in East Lansing, scoring only three points and collecting only one rebound in 15 minutes of action. This year, he’s a different player at home, with four of his six double digit efforts coming at the Crisler Center helping lead wins. Fact is, the Wolverines probably won’t have a shot at winning without Doyle doing a good job down low against the likes of Gavin Schilling, Matt Costello and Branden Dawson, players who can mix it up for second chance points and rebounds. He’ll have to grow up in a hurry, and if he does, could be a major reason the Wolverines manage to win.
One of the most interesting stories of the year for the rival Spartans has been their play and usage of freshman guard Lourawls “Tum Tum” Narin Jr. The youngster has been gaining confidence seemingly in every game, and had his best game of the season against Ohio State, collecting seven points and five rebounds in 36 minutes. Narin also played heady defense all day, and made the excellent pass which set up Valentine’s winning bucket. He’s earned the starting nod, and with another elite game, could help Michigan State’s blossoming backcourt put a stranglehold on the Wolverines.
Wolverine Stat To Watch: 282, the total number of points the Wolverines have allowed in their last four games, all losses. Prior to that, the Wolverines were on a nice run of winning games behind not allowing over 65 points. In every loss but one in the streak, the opposition has gone well over 70. Somehow, Michigan has to reverse the negative spiral on defense. They’ll probably have to hope for a cold shooting night from the Spartans, and hold Michigan State somewhere in the 50s to win while generating their own offensive explosion. Even that didn’t work for Ohio State, proving how stingy the Spartans can be defensively themselves. It’s a mighty task for the Wolverines.
Prediction: For some reason, the Spartans have looked downright intimidated at the Crisler Center recently. It certainly helps that Michigan’s had formidable teams the last few years. This time around, with injuries playing a factor, the wounded Wolverines are trying to get by on heart alone. They’ll always have something to prove against Michigan State, but still might not have the depth to win a slugfest against a confident Spartans team. Dawson’s proven to be a bad match up for Michigan, and the Spartans get better guard play than the Wolverines as well with Valentine turning it on. They turn a very close game into a relative laugher eventually. Michigan State 70, Michigan 58
Max DeMara is a senior editor at The Detroit Sports Site. You can find him on Twitter @SportsGuyTheMax
