Last season, the Michigan Wolverines took a major step by sweeping the Michigan State Spartans away, winning both of their regular season meetings.
With something to prove, however, the Spartans fought back and later blasted Michigan in the Big Ten tournament final. It’s safe to say the last three years have been amongst the most balanced and competitive of the rivalry on the hardwood.
Sunday, the teams meet for the first time in 2015. Does a weary Wolverine squad have enough to win in the rowdy Breslin Center again? Will the inconsistent Spartans get a measure of revenge for last year’s loss?
Wolverine Walkthrough previews the big rivalry’s first foray into basketball for this season.
How Michigan Wins: A big day from Ricky Doyle.
If there’s one area the Spartans have been a bit weakened this season, it’s been down low. Gavin Schilling is still developing, and Michigan State doesn’t know what they’ll get on a nightly basis from either Matt Costello or freshmen like Marvin Clark and Javon Bess. For this reason, points in the paint have been downright tough to find at times. Knowing this, Michigan should try and get Doyle as involved as possible down low, and force the Spartans to pay attention to him. After that happens, they should begin to suck the Michigan State defense in from the three point line, leaving shooters open. Considering all their injuries, the Wolverines will have to rely on the three ball to stay in this game a bit more this season.
How Michigan State Wins: Making the extra pass.
The Spartans are one of the best teams in the nation at sharing the rock, and in order to win on Sunday, they will have to get plenty of people plenty of touches in order to ensure their own success. Branden Dawson needs some looks inside, as does Schilling and Costello, regardless of the success they have had. Outside, the Spartans need to do a great job of spacing the floor and allowing their shooters to get into comfortable spots to knock down open looks. If the Spartans play unselfishly and limit the mental mistakes from playing too quick, they will be hard to stop given their excellent shooting statistics.
The X-Factors: Max Bielfeldt and Bryn Forbes
A player capable of getting touches in the paint and hitting a few three pointers, Bielfeldt is the type of scorer that could be a significant danger to the Spartans if left unchecked. At times, he will confound with his struggles, but if Bielfeldt is on his game, he’s someone the Spartans cannot leave alone due to his ability to knock down open looks and extend the floor high to low. Michigan needs all the scoring they can get given the loss of Caris LeVert and the potential loss or ineffective Derrick Walton.
Considering his last game (18 points against Rutgers), Forbes is a player the Wolverines will have to identify. He’s a lights-out shooter from deep, and can also knock down midrange jumpers with ease, making him a scoring threat nearly every time he touches the ball. Somehow, the Wolverines will have to rattle Forbes and prevent him from getting comfortable on the floor. His favorite spot is along the base line, so Michigan will need to watch this spot and identify Forbes all over the place.
Wolverine Stat To Watch: 39.5, the blistering percentage Michigan State shoots from three point land, which ranks 22nd in the nation. In a bizarre turnaround, the Spartans actually shoot the ball better from three this season than the Wolverines do (34.6 percent, the 143rd ranked three shooting team in the nation). In a strange turn, it will be the Wolverines who have to be worried about the long bombs going up and down, and defend as such, meaning closing speed will have to be on display. If the Spartans work the ball high to low, the Wolverines will have a major challenge defending some excellent shooting from the outside.
Prediction: Michigan and Michigan State, while they have similar records, have played differently this season. The Wolverines have over-achieved given what they have lost now and in the past, and the Spartans have under-achieved given what they still have. At this point, Michigan State is a bit too talented for dinged-up Michigan, especially at home. The case might not be the same at the Crisler Center in a few weeks, but the Spartans blast the Wolverines behind an aggressive, healthy attack and an animalistic Dawson and Travis Trice. They’ll simply be more fired up. Michigan State 73, Michigan 60
Max DeMara is a senior editor at The Detroit Sports Site. You can find him on Twitter @SportsGuyTheMaxHow Michigan State Wins: Playing unselfishly.