The time is finally here to once again celebrate Michigan and Michigan State week, the one time of year the Great Lakes state is completely flipped on its axis and filled with vitriol prior to one special Saturday afternoon.
As usual, Spartan Sideline gets it’s seasonal visit from Wolverine Walkthrough to break down the biggest game in the state. What do the Spartans have to do to reprise their status as overwhelming favorites? How can Michigan pull one of the more shocking upsets in the series?
It’s all here to preview 2014′s edition of the backyard brawl.
How Michigan State Wins: Control the line of scrimmage again.
Mark Dantonio said it himself this week. When Michigan State wins the line, they win this game, often with ease throughout the series.
Last year, the Spartans overpowered the Wolverines up front, leading to Michigan’s demise. Devin Gardner was beaten up as his porous offensive line didn’t allow him time to make competent or confident decisions. Michigan State’s offense, meanwhile, ran the ball with success to help set up the pass. This year, the Wolverines must figure out a way to win the line of scrimmage battle. Their defensive front is tough, so they must limit the Spartans on the ground first to help take away the pass. Offensively, they have to do a better job than last year at giving their quarterback time and space to make big plays. If the pocket is open for even just a few more seconds, Gardner will be dangerous. Michigan State must counter this by mixing their blitz schemes and protection packages well.
How Michigan Wins: Uh … hope Michigan State forgets what time kickoff is?
OK, OK, you want a real answer. Here’s how Michigan wins: by playing its best game of the season, establishing its ground attack early, hitting a couple of deep shots from Devin Gardner to Devin Funches and pressuring Connor Cook into a few mistakes. Simple enough, right? The Wolverines just have to play a perfect 60 minutes.
For as hideous as last year’s game turned out for the Maize and Blue, they actually hung in there until halftime on the strength of their defense. It has to be the same story Saturday. Pitching a shutout is unrealistic, but the Wolverines have to find a way to keep Michigan State around the 20-point mark while also forcing multiple turnovers.
Do that and maybe Gardner can find enough openings to give his team a chance.
Michigan And Michigan State Players To Watch: Justice Hayes and Marcus Rush
WW: De’Veon Smith is Michigan’s leading rusher now that Derrick Green is done for the year. It has been Hayes, though, getting the nod in most passing situations. Given how Michigan State can rush the passer — and how it banged around Gardner throughout the 2013 rivalry game — we might see a healthy dose of Hayes, both for his blocking and his ability to slip out for passes.
Even though Hayes has just five receptions this season, he’ll have to play a huge role on offense Saturday.
SS: Quietly, Rush might be the toughest player on the Spartan defense. It seems like he’s played in this game forever, and he continues to be a thorn in the sides of the Wolverines every single year blitzing the pocket off the edge and creating pressure. Michigan’s not going to win unless they can keep Gardner upright, and a good starting point would be stopping Rush, one of the players who is the heart and soul of the defense. As an Ohio native, Rush also seems to take the game extra personally, so limiting his impact could prove huge for Michigan.
Most Important “State” Stat Of The Game: 2, the total number of interceptions Connor Cook has had the last two weeks. In both games, Cook errors helped jump start the opposition and provided them with a spark that they needed to hang around early and late and make the battle tougher for the Spartan defense. Arguably, turnovers are perhaps the only thing that could keep a beaten down Michigan team in the game, so Cook has to do his best to set his feet and make wise throws. The mistakes haven’t cost him or his team dearly yet in a game, but at some point, it feels like an ill-timed one could.
Wolverine Walkthrough Stat To Watch: 6-10. That is Michigan’s road record in the Brady Hoke regime, including an 0-2 mark this season (losses at Notre Dame and Rutgers).
Not that Hoke’s team has been particularly good at the Big House of late, but it is a bad break for the Wolverines that they have to make a second consecutive trip to East Lansing. Having Saturday’s game in Ann Arbor would have provided at least a little bit of a boost, even if the odds still would have been stacked against them.
The setback in Notre Dame was a mess from the get-go. Outside of that, Michigan has managed to hang around in road games under Hoke, for the most part. The problems have come after halftime. Again, this has to be a full 60-minute performance for the Wolverines to even have a tiny chance.
Spartan Sideline’s Michigan State Intangible: Overconfidence.
All week, the narrative has been that the Spartans are the overwhelming favorite. Never mind the fact that Michigan had the week off to rest, rejuvenate and prepare, which should allow them a fast start against a Michigan State team who has played two consecutive weeks on the road. The Spartans have to approach this game as they always have save the past handful of meetings: they must play as if they’re the underdog with overwhelming passion. Having a few too many people patting a team on the back can often have a negative effect.
Wolverine Walkthrough’s Michigan Intangible: The underdog factor.
No one — and I mean, no one – thinks Michigan can go into Spartan Stadium and hang with a top-10 team, let alone pull of the upset. Somehow, Hoke has to find a way to use that fact to create an us-against-the-world mentality. There already has been a little bit of that due to the heat surrounding Hoke and athletic director Dave Brandon.
Spartan Sideline Prediction: It’s hard to believe many considered Michigan State’s last two road performances—which featured the dismantling of two separate Indiana colleges—unsuccessful. Still, the Spartans have plenty to clean up before a hard-hitting rivalry game with Michigan. They’ve got advantages all over the field, though, including the one with the fans at Spartan Stadium. The bye might help the Wolverines off to a fast start, but the second half is where Michigan State has dominated this series, and the lion comes out of the cage again. The ground game gets loose and someone other than Tony Lippett also steps up at receiver. Michigan State 37, Michigan 17
Wolverine Walkthrough Prediction: I do think Michigan is better than we have seen at times this season, like in slumbering losses to Utah and Minnesota. In the grand scheme of things Saturday, that won’t mean a whole lot.
The Wolverines might be able to keep it close for a quarter or two. Anything beyond that would be stunning.
Michigan State 34, Michigan 10
Max DeMara is a senior editor at The Detroit Sports Site. You can find him on Twitter @SportsGuyTheMax