For the second and final regular season time this year, the Michigan Wolverines will battle the Michigan State Spartans with first place in the Big Ten on the line. Currently, the Wolverines sit a half game behind the Spartans, but with a good effort Sunday, they could sweep the season series for the first time since the 2010-11 season.
The Spartans are getting a bit healthier this time, however, meaning this match up should be even better and more hotly contested than the last. The last three meetings in Ann Arbor have been determined by nine points. How will the Wolverines make enough winning plays to push through at home again? Wolverine Walkthrough has the guide.
How Michigan Wins: Getting dirty down low.
In the January win, Michigan State was without Adreian Payne, which was a big deal for the Spartans and also the Wolverines. Michigan reserves Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford did enough to outscore the Spartans’ front line players 19-17. With Payne now back, Michigan will have to work a little harder and score a bit more in order to give themselves a great chance to win. Last season in Ann Arbor, the Wolverines escaped even at full strength down low. To win convincingly, they’ll have to go right at Michigan State, scrap for rebounds and challenge the Spartans physically, especially with Glenn Robinson III. Considering their guard play, if the Wolverines bring that effort with their bigs, they will be in solid shape to win.
How Michigan State Wins: Win the guard battle.
The Wolverines have some definite bombers in Nik Stauskas, Caris LeVert, Derrick Walton and Zak Irvin. How they do will determine if Michigan wins at home. In the last meeting, the big three set the tone with consistency, as Stauskas scored 19 points, Walton scored 19 and LeVert added 17. All told, the Wolverine guards contributed 55 points to the winning road effort. Michigan State’s guards haven’t been as consistent lately with the exception of their shocking barrage of three pointers against Purdue. To win on the road, the Spartans must hold at least two of the big three down, and get a better day from Keith Appling and Denzel Valentine. Michigan State has to find a way to bottle Wolverine guards up and get them in some foul trouble in order to have a good day on the road.
The X-Factors: Zak Irvin and Matt Costello
As he’s gotten more time, Irvin has gotten very hot, scoring in double figures for a three game stretch recently. That streak ended with a six point effort against Wisconsin, but the good games show his value and development, especially as a scorer and shooter. If the Spartans fail to identify Irvin, he can be a difference maker, especially from three point land. Being mindful of Irvin will help the Spartans, while the Wolverines will hope he can give the team quality minutes off the bench.
Costello has to continue to play solid as a complement to Payne. Michigan State will miss Branden Dawson again in this meeting, but there’s no reason that Costello shouldn’t fill the void with confidence. In the first meeting, Costello scored nine points and grabbed eight rebounds. Michigan will have to be careful not to let Costello dominate, get extra rebounds or score easy points. If he contributes on the score sheet along with Payne, Michigan State will suddenly be in business within the paint.
Wolverine Stat To Watch: 35, the number of rebounds the Wolverines pulled down in East Lansing. That was six more than Michigan State grabbed, and not surprisingly, the Wolverines won the game. 35 rebounds is a good number to look to again. With Payne back in the fold, if the Wolverines could do that again, they will more than likely win the game in big fashion. Conversely, Michigan State has to improve upon an ugly amount, as they only grabbed 29 total boards last time around.
Prediction: Michigan State, for whatever reason, has been a much more confident team on the road this season. That continues in Ann Arbor, where the Spartans have still been close the last several years despite playing bad basketball. Payne shows why his absence was the difference, Appling plays well and Michigan State keeps Stauskas in check. Michigan State 72, Michigan 65
Max DeMara is a senior editor at The Detroit Sports Site. You can find him on Twitter @SportsGuyTheMax