It’s been nearly a week since the Michigan Wolverines scored a big win against the Michigan State Spartans, remaining the only undefeated team in Big Ten play. Will the rest help the team, or will rust develop? There won’t be any more time to ponder those questions as the Purdue Boilermakers pay a visit to Ann Arbor on Thursday night.
Purdue enters the Crisler Center losers of two in a row, including an overtime defeat against the lowly yet resurgent Northwestern Wildcats. Despite this, the Boilermakers shouldn’t be overlooked given the Big Ten’s volatility in 2014. How can Michigan stay undefeated? Wolverine Walkthrough has the keys to the game and offers a prediction.
How Michigan Can Win: Great guard play
It sounds simple enough, but when Michigan scores over 71 points in a game, they win. Not consequently, Purdue hasn’t been great on defense, allowing 76 points to Butler, 78 to offensively challenged Ohio State and 82 to Minnesota. Arguably, all of those foes have a weaker backcourt attack than the Wolverines will present on Thursday, meaning the key to this matchup will be the guards. Can the Boilermakers limit Nik Stauskas, something few have been able to do save for Michigan State in spurts on Saturday night? If Stauskas struggles, can Derrick Walton step up? Will Spike Albrecht contribute solid minutes off the bench? Michigan is deeper than Purdue at this key position, and should have a decisive advantage if they attack the basket, knock down open threes and play aggressively, as usual.
How Purdue Can Win: Establish A.J. Hammons, others down low.
Michigan has gotten by lately with solid play from Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford in the paint, but they will be put to a tremendous test by Hammons, Purdue’s do-everything center. He’s a seven-footer who will be a load for both Morgan and Horford to contend with. Inside, Hammons averages around seven rebounds per-game, so it will be important for both of Michigan’s interior players to try and hold him away from easy rebounds. Offensively, Hammons has come on strong, going into double digits in five of his last seven games. If Michigan gets in trouble down low with fouls, it could be a long night, especially if players like Hammons, Jay Simpson and Travis Carroll get going and take the ball to the hoop.
The X-Factors: Derrick Walton and Terone Johnson
Walton had a coming out party in East Lansing, scorching the Spartans with 19 points, four assists and six rebounds. He was one of the biggest reasons the Wolverines were able to win. Now that he’s been circled on scouting reports, can Walton deliver a second straight big performance with perhaps a bit more defensive pressure on? It’s safe to say that when both he and Stauskas get their games into gear and are 20 point scorers, Michigan is a different team. They’ll win big again if Walton is a major scoring and rebounding threat.
Johnson, a senior starter, will certainly be more of a story on Thursday night than simply an “X-Factor,” but he’s unheralded a bit, and will certainly be overshadowed by others on the court, be them Stauskas, Walton, Hammons and company leading to his inclusion here. Still, Johnson is a 13 point per-game scorer, and someone certainly capable of getting hot and changing the complexion of a game in the process. He’s scored 20 points twice this year, once in a win over West Virginia and once in the loss to Butler, and will probably have to hit that mark again if Purdue is to have a good shot at winning a tough road game.
Wolverine Stat To Watch: 11, the amount of turnovers the Wolverines had on the road against the Spartans Saturday. Michigan was uncharacteristically sloppy most of the night, and that helped dig them a few holes during the game. Fortunately, hot shooting and play making bailed them out in the second half, but the high turnover number was concerning, nonetheless. Often times, lesser teams hang around in games because the favored team is playing sloppy, undisciplined basketball. That can’t happen on Thursday at home. Purdue would love to take advantage of extra possessions and free fast break baskets, so Michigan will have to prevent that from happening as much as possible by being careful with the rock.
Prediction: Michigan, behind some inspired guard play, is on a fantastic roll. Purdue doesn’t have enough prime-time players to win the game. They’ll keep things close by feeding Hammons and feasting off a tiny bit of Michigan rust early, but in the end, Stauskas finds a way to close them out, and the Wolverines win another game at home to stay undefeated in the league. Michigan 73, Purdue 64
Max DeMara is a senior editor at The Detroit Sports Site. You can find him on Twitter @SportsGuyTheMax