The Michigan State Spartans snuck by the Indiana Hoosiers in the second half on Tuesday, helping them to remain undefeated in Big Ten play and setting up a major showdown Saturday night in East Lansing with the rival Michigan Wolverines.
Michigan won their showdown game as well, upsetting the Iowa Hawkeyes at home to roll into the Breslin Center undefeated. Considering the average play of the rest of the conference, the battle of Michigan might very well continue to determine who wins the Big Ten the rest of 2014. As usual, Spartan Jump Shots turns to their pal from Wolverine Walkthrough with more misguided rooting interests to provide a primer for this latest edition of the backyard brawl.
Michigan State’s Key To Victory: Make Michigan’s supporting cast beat you.
Nik Stauskas has evolved as a player, carving up Big Ten defenses to the tune of 18.5 per-game, bombing deep three pointers and getting teammates invovled. It wouldn’t be right to say Michigan is a one man team because Jon Horford and Jordan Morgan have each stepped up in the absence of Mitch McGary and Glenn Robinson III is a very quality player. Still, it feels like nobody has been able to play lockdown defense on Stauskas himself this season. If the Spartans want to win, they should try as best they can to take Stauskas out of the game and make the others step up on the road. As previous games have shown, that can happen. The Spartans play better defense than anyone Michigan has played thus far, so they’ll have to neutralize Stauskas and force role players to step up.
Michigan’s Key To Victory: Keep the big men involved.
It sounds a little odd to say given how much John Beilein’s offense is predicated on the outside game, but Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford have become increasingly critical to this team’s success. Keeping them involved on the offensive end of the court has loosened some of the pressure on Michigan’s guards and wings, while it also seems to energize their defensive efforts.
Even shorthanded, Michigan State will play a physical game on Saturday night. The Wolverines do not have much depth up front, so it’s a must that they make Morgan and Horford part of the action.
John Beilein may call on his to neutralize Keith Appling, and Albrecht needs to answer the bell.
Most Important “State” Stat Of The Game: 6-19 for 31.6%, the three point percentage Michigan collected in their rough loss in East Lansing last year. Obviously, these numbers will have to improve if the Wolverines want to win this time around. Michigan didn’t make a single three pointer in their tenuous win in Ann Arbor last season, either. Considering the Spartans figure to come out hot, the Wolverines will need to weather a few storms and could do that in the form of three point shooting. Watch for Stauskas, Walton and
Michigan Stat To Know: Points. As in, 71 of them.
When Michigan hits that magical 71-point mark, it’s 11-0 on the season. When the Wolverines have failed to get there, they’re just 3-4. It may be asking too much for Beilein’s team to put up a performance like the one it delivered at Wisconsin, when just about everything was falling over the first half of the game. But Michigan also cannot allow Michigan State to dictate the game’s tempo with its defense, thereby holding the Wolverines to a ton of slow-moving one-and-done possessions.
Michigan State Intangible: Mindset after another injury setback.
Branden Dawson was lost for the next 4-5 weeks with a broken bone in his hand sustained while pounding a table in frustration while watching film. Considering Adreian Payne is already sidelined and not scheduled to return any time soon, it was a major setback for the Spartans. As a result, many will be tempted to write Michigan State off as it relates to this game and even the Big Ten race. How will the Spartans respond? Will they be completely deflated or galvanized?
Michigan Intangible: Defense.
In case no one has noticed, the Wolverines have improved rather steadily in their own end, highlighted by that win over Iowa. There, Michigan stuffed a high-scoring Hawkeyes team in a 75-67 victory. With Branden Dawson out of the lineup and Adreian Payne likely joining him on the sideline, Michigan State will be down two of its key offensive contributors. If Michigan can find a way to put the clamps on Gary Harris a bit, it could enjoy more success.
SJS Prediction: Though the Spartans lost another player this week and are severely wounded, they still have excellent guard play with Gary Harris and Keith Appling, both of whom are capable of playing lock down defense in addition to lighting up the scoreboard. This duo will be too much for Michigan to match. Watch for Denzel Valentine to have a coming out party as well, with Kaminski and Ellis playing a clutch role at times unexpectedly. Michigan State doesn’t win pretty, but they get the job done at home and edge out Stauskas and company, who put up a major fight. Michigan State 68, Michigan 61
WW Prediction: The stars are aligned — even with Mitch McGary still out and Walton ailing — for the Wolverines to claim a win on Saturday night and take control of the Big Ten. It’s still going to be a very tough task against an MSU squad that’s barely blinked despite battling injuries.
I wouldn’t expect a repeat of last season’s matchup at Breslin, which turned into an easy Spartans rout. I’m just not sure Michigan will be able to get the job done consistently enough on offense to spring the upset. Michigan State 71, Michigan 64
Max DeMara is a senior editor at The Detroit Sports Site. You can find him on Twitter @SportsGuyTheMax